Rwanda’s Kagame reelected with 99% of the vote – And here’s why he will remain in power for a long time to come

TAKUDZWA HILLARY CHIWANZA

Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame is definitely here to stay. His near quarter-century stay in office was extended with his landslide electoral victory, after he was reelected with 99.18% of the vote according to the National Electoral Commission. 

President Paul Kagame at an RPF meeting in Rubavu, Rwanda, in June. (Paloma Laudet/New Lines Magazine)

Oda Gasinzigwa, chairperson of the National Electoral Commission, told a news conference that voter turnout was 98.20% of the nine million registered voters, in a country with 14 million people. The final results are due to be announced no later than July 27. 

The two men standing against President Kagame – Frank Habineza from the Democratic Green Party and independent Philippe Mpayimana – both conceded defeat in last week's election. 

As usual, rights groups say the poll was marred by a crackdown on journalists, the opposition and civil society groups. And, as expected, the government repeatedly rejected such criticism during the election period.

And this is the part that is a subject of huge interest: that despite the rule of Kagame and his ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) part showing authoritarian inclinations, the people of Rwanda still opt to keep him in power. 

Kagame is a man who is equally loved and feared; adored and loathed, and it might be imperative to understand why he has managed to stay in power for such a long time – being poised to remain for another long time to come. 

Many may discard Rwanda's politics as being shorn of ideal democratic principles, but in a country that is deeply scarred by the wounds of genocide, perhaps it is not misplaced to assert that it is inconceivable for Rwandans to imagine any other path than the one of certainty and stability that Kagame has guaranteed to the country. 

The fact of the matter is that Paul Kagame remains hugely popular in Rwanda, despite a palpable atmosphere of repressed dissent and endless accusations of violence against political adversaries. The heroism of Kagame as the man who saved Rwanda from the ashes of a brutal genocide in which more than 1 million Rwandans were massacred is deeply ensconced in the psyche of Rwandans. For now, there is no other option for the east African country except Paul Kagame. 

His messianic image and cult of personality among Rwandans clearly trump over allegations of a being a dictator hell bent on retaining power. And this is also owed to his being a shrewd political operator whose military and intelligence background have helped him maintain a rule without any opposition to be feared. He has a reputation for being a pragmatic and no-nonsense statesman keen on tangible deliverables and averse to corruption and ill governance. 

To many young Rwandans who have only known one president and one dominant ruling party, it is exceedingly beyond doubt that Kagame is the only reasonable option for them – an able statesman working assiduously to lift Rwanda to glory, redeeming it from its dark past.

It is this dark past that is the focal point of Kagame's hold on power. The 1994 genocide in Rwanda was a macabre point in the country's history. Rooted in ethnic tensions between the majority Hutus and the minority Tutsis, and fueled by colonial legacies, political manipulation, and economic disparities, the genocide was a ghastly stain in the story of Rwanda. It was the culmination of decades of discrimination and incitement against Tutsis by extremist Hutus. 

When President Juvenal Habyarimana’s plane was shot down on April 6, 1994, the country plunged into utter chaos. The Interahamwe militia, armed with machetes and propelled by hate propaganda, unleashed a wave of terror — 100 days of terroristic frenzy and mass killings resulted in over 1 million Rwandans losing their lives. These were primarily Tutsis, who had long been targeted by the Hutus, the majority population in the country. 

The Rwanda Patriotic Front, with Paul Kagame at the forefront, emerged as the saviours of the tormented country. And in this, it is infinitely important to reprise Kagame's background. Kagame was born in 1957, and in 1961, his family fled to Uganda fearing persecution against the Tutsi community back home. He spent his early years in Kampala, Uganda's capital, and between 1976 and 1978, he would illegally cross the border into Rwanda to spend time there. This was because of his refugee status in Uganda which prohibited him from returning to his country of birth. 

It was during this time that Kagame's intelligence skills caught the attention of Yoweri Museveni – the current Ugandan president who played an instrumental role in ousting Idi Amin in 1979 –and he became head of the Ugandan military intelligence. Museveni had to later remove Kagame from this position because of his Rwandan heritage following pressure from nationalists. Other Rwandans who had been promoted by Museveni were removed as well. 

Kagame then pursued military training in Kansas, United States. When Fred Rwigema, leader of the Rwandan Patriotic Front and Kagame's close friend died in mysterious circumstances in 1990, Kagame assumed leadership – and this was at a time when the movement was making its initial offensive in Rwanda. 

When the genocide broke out, the RPF received substantial support from Museveni. The RPF, composed mainly of Tutsi refugees, infiltrated Rwanda; and their disciplined guerrilla warfare tactics and determination turned the tide. By July 1994, they had seized the country, pushing the genocidal forces back. In those dark times, Kagame’s leadership of the RPF Inkotanyi’s armed wing proved pivotal in saving countless lives.

From then on, a path of rebuilding and reconciliation was vigorously pursued, and today, Kagame and the RPF remain unwavering in that path. The country has been on a remarkable trajectory of resurgence, and this is what makes Kagame endearing to many in Rwanda. This, despite critics labelling him a dictator, is what keeps him in power. The road to stability and certainty is what drives Rwandans to vote for Kagame. Having been formally elected as Rwanda's president in 2003, Kagame has remained in power till this day, with constitutional changes voted on in 2015 allowing him to seek reelection until 2034. Definitely, he is here to stay for a very long time. More so in a country where the risks of dissenting are grave. 

Public sentiments in Rwanda are mostly supportive of Kagame's rule, and the longevity of his dominance can be attributed to the steady finances of the RPF. This has enabled the party to establish a chain of profitable businesses, giving the party sufficient profits to maintain its grip on power. In the aftermath of the genocide, the RPF took the mantle of being pro-business to spur investment and growth. Although RPF's involvement in business leads to unfair competition, this is one of the chief reasons allowing Kagame, the party's leader, to stay in power. The party has enough money to keep him in power. 

Kagame will be around for a long time because of his strict and disciplinarian approach in governance. And in this, others argue Kagame is a ruthless dictator. In Rwanda, he has a reputation for being a no-nonsense leader, as he does not tolerate government officials' indiscipline and, in particular, corruption. Where officials have been implicated in cases where their accountability is questionable, Kagame has not been hesitant to remove them from office. 

“All of us leaders should always uphold that when it comes to fulfilling our duties in public service, we should not confuse our own interest with that of the country,” he said to his officials in 2020. It is easy for someone who extols a high work ethic to remain the most favourable option among the masses. 

An omnipresent force in Rwanda's politics, Kagame does not relent in maintaining his hegemony and that of the RPF in the country. The RPF has established a one-party dominant system in which no other opposition stands a chance whatsoever. The ruling party in Rwanda has used its parliamentary dominance to pass strict regulations that govern political parties. These measures have resulted in the disbanding of opposition parties like the Mouvement Démocratique Républicain (MDR), while co-opting others into a pro-government coalition. The Rwanda Patriotic Front argues that this approach reflects a spirit of consensus governance rather than conflictual political competition.

Political commentators assert that the risks of criticizing President Kagame or his administration are exceptionally high for those involved in Rwandan politics. According to Human Rights Watch, many government critics have ended up in jail, forced into exile, or even assassinated. The country scores poorly on measures of political freedoms. Freedom House, which ranks global freedom statuses, gave the country a score of just 23/100, saying that while the regime has maintained stability and economic growth, it has also suppressed political dissent through pervasive surveillance, intimidation, arbitrary detention, torture, and the suspected assassination or rendition of exiled dissidents.

In all this, one thing is clear: Kagame represents stability and certainty. He remains the saviour of Rwanda, hence his messianic politics. And this alone will keep him in power till 2034. He is the embodiment of predictability in the country's politics, and Rwandans find comfort in this – for now. It is also clear that under his leadership, Rwanda will continue to pursue the path of rebuilding on a firm footing, as the country tries to distance itself from its deeply traumatic past. 

The gains that have been won under Kagame are immense. Of course, it does not mean that he is indispensable. Though he has not hinted expressly about the mechanisms of power transition, a time will come when Rwanda will need to opt for a new person. For now, the confidence Rwandans have in him is enough to keep in power for as long as he wants. And, also, he doesn’t care what West thinks about his dictatorial tendencies. 

“I’m sorry for the West, but what the West thinks is not my problem,” he told Jeune Afrique magazine in 2023.