LIAM TAKURA KANHENGA*
AS President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa is still in the fresh stages of his second term, the spectre of overextending his stay in office has cast a shadow over Zimbabwe's political landscape.
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| Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, Zimbabwe’s President and leader of the ruling ZANU-PF party. Although he stated he is not desirous for a third term, ZANU-PF structures have already started voicing their support for the 81-year-old politician to seek a third term in office in order to bring to fruition what is termed as “Vision 2030”. |
While Section 91(2) of the Constitution bars a president from serving more than two terms, Mnangagwa and his allies have already begun – fervently so – to pave the way for a potential third term.
This brazen maneuver has sparked debate among observers, as they assess the legality and constitutionality of the move and its implications for the country's fragile democracy.
Chip off the old block and learning from friends
President Mnangagwa obstinately adheres to the long-standing Mugabe ideology of consolidating power at all costs; thus, it is clear that he has authoritarian tendencies similar to those of his mentor Robert Mugabe. The term ‘chip off the old block’ aptly summarizes Mnangagwa's increasing disdain for the constitution and his audacious adoption of dictatorial strategies—something clearly learnt from Robert Mugabe.
Therefore, it is hardly surprising to read that Mnangagwa is considering seeking for a third term as Zimbabwe's president. Mnangagwa is an outgrowth of authoritarianism. His regard for the constitution is minimal, and he is not ashamed to broadcast it as he goes on a mission to consolidate power.
He rose up the political ranks under the tutelage of Robert Mugabe, who cultivated a powerful personality cult and exploited it to solidify control within ZANU PF and the government. I will remind you of Grace Mugabe's remarks on how Bob would still rule from the grave. This was a clear and explicit declaration of Mugabe's lifetime presidency logic.
The idea is always embodied in the depiction of one's vainglorious notions of being irreplaceable, and their presentation as a ‘Greatest of All Time’ in their party and government.
I am beginning to get frustrated by the fact that most analysts and participants in opposition politics and civil society discussing this issue are not looking at the deeper scheme but just focus on shortsighted events or just a third term.
The former CCC spokesperson Promise Mkwananzi naively claimed that they as a movement peacefully foiled the third term bid (following Mnangagwa's earlier remarks that he would not seek a third term as he wants to “take a rest”) without fully considering the broad matrix around this.
Mnangagwa appears to be following in the footsteps of his African colleagues, such Paul Biya, Yoweri Museveni, and Paul Kagame, by relying on populist strategies and personality politics to hold onto power. The 2018 statement "2030 ndenge ndichipo" by Mnangagwa provides a clear picture of Zimbabwe's future under his leadership and alludes to his aspirations for lifetime rule.
Authoritarian consolidation
The third term discourse is clearly an obvious interest deeply enshrined in a broader plan of authoritarian consolidation. Mnangagwa wants absolute power and the first step to getting it is by getting lifetime presidency. Perhaps he just does not want to go about it overtly.
Already with a parliamentary majority and a demobilized opposition, a constitutional amendment extending his stay in office might be a concrete possibilty. Zanu PF will have to either scrap of Section 91(2) of the constitution or change its wording to allow Mnangagwa to run for a third and possibly fourth and fifth term.
Mnangagwa's faction has already begun setting the agenda with the 2030 mantra, although one could say we saw this coming. This plan also involves the pursuit of a de jure one party state. Mnangagwa is an avid follower and imitator of strongman politics and clearly the one-party state agenda is part of his plans. He needs this power to continue pillaging the countries resources with impunity and continue mafia rule in the country.
Furthermore, Zanu PF's constitution does not have term limits for a first secretary. So already, ED is clear for reelection at the next Congress.
Zimbabwean political parties have an unwritten rule that an incumbent should not be contested, and the party organs are deployed to whip the branches, districts and provinces to do so. After all such strand of politics, often couched with the rhetoric of sovereignty, helps factions to consolidate and retain power. And currently, Mnangagwa presides over the dominant faction.
With repressive laws such as the PVO Bill and the Patriotic Act, Mnangagwa has civil society and all dissident formations under lock and key; and with a 2021 amendment to the constitution that gave him power to appoint judges, he will definitely set up a judiciary that he controls.
All this creates fertile conditions that necessitate the establishment of a one-party state presided over by a lifetime president while the beneficiary will face very little to no resistance.
Entrenching a personality cult
Just as in many other former liberation movements, politics is local and always decided at the grassroot/village level. Understanding this dynamic, Mnangagwa has used lower-level party structures, such as provinces, branches and cells, women, and youth groups, to rally support and mobilize for his initiatives.
Typical examples are the “4ED” formations which at some point operated as parallel structures campaigning for him in the run up to the previous congress. These groups have worked as platforms to propagate ED's successes and portray him as an effective and indispensable figure without whom the party will fail.
The same approach has worked in Mnangagwa splashing out resources and money in buying influence among people within and outside ZANU PF or at least to aid recruitment of new supporters. This grassroots strategy strengthens his influence at many levels of the party because it is these same structures that will be deployed to start the choreographed people's call for the president to stay on lead the party so that he continues with the great work he is doing. These are the same claims that will be used to amputate the constitution.
Religious leaders and faith-based groups like those of the prophecy driven white garment church have worked to build a personality cult around Mnangagwa. Some have given prophecies and claim that ED has divine right to rule the country.
This is coupled with the royalization of presidency in Zimbabwe where the President is equated to Munhumutapa (an ancient shona emperor), and local indigenous faith is abused by declaring that ZANU PF and Mnangagwa are chosen by the Vadzimu/ Badimo to continue ruling all to make him feared and uncontestable because defying divine declaration leads to damnation.
To remind you these same strategies were used by Robert Mugabe during his time.
The law and (im)possibilities
While section 92(1) of the Constitution limits a president's time of service to a maximum of two terms, there is a possibility that ZANU PF and Mnangagwa will move a motion to amend the constitution either to change the wording or to scrap the law to allow the incumbent a longer stay in office. Quite sure it will be propagated as “the voice of the people” at Congress. Also known as “the voice of the people is the voice of God”.
However, inasmuch as a constitutional amendment is possible Mnangagwa might not benefit because section 328 of the constitution states that if a law is changed to allow the extension of a term to hold an office, the holder of the office at the time of amendment will not benefit from that change.
This is a hurdle beyond factions or internal ZANU PF rules. I foresee it as one that his rivals will use to stop his bid, unless he amends that clause as well.
In my view, the attempt to further amend the constitution to finalize ED's third term agenda might be the spark event that will cause his removal by force or through legal means.
This could also be the one attempt that can create enough reason and motivation for civil society to reorganize itself to resist him the same way that happened to Mugabe. Within ZANU PF, Mnangagwa's ascendance showed people that it is possible to remove an overstaying president. Especially when it can possibly leave the party stronger.
History has also shown us that when a leader tries to overstay his welcome, the people will force him out. It is less than eight years ago that Mugabe was removed from power through a military coup accompanied by popular action in the streets of Harare.
Another example: Ali Bongo was removed from office in the same manner after trying to cling to power just last year.
Even if he tries to use legal means, just next door in South Africa Thabo Mbeki tried to earn himself a third term and the legal system blocked him. So, these are all cases of political history that should teach Mnangagwa that an exit from power is inevitable.
Conclusively, Mnangagwa's ambition is not limited to a third term in office, but comes off as a lifetime pursuit in power—and wielding that power in absolute terms through undermining the law, capturing the state and entrenching a personality cult.
His pursuit of this ambition is not immune to contact with his enemies. Therefore, it will lead to conflict both within and outside ZANU PF and in my view all scenarios end with him out of power.
*Takura Liam Kanhenga is a human rights activist who writes here in his personal capacity.
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